Vincent Clerc, CEO of Danish shipping giant Maersk, pointed out in an interview that global trade is showing signs of recovery, but unlike this year's inventory adjustment, the rebound next year is mainly driven by rising consumer demand in Europe and America. Ko Wensheng, who only took over Maersk this year, pointed out in an interview with US financial media CNBC last week that unless there are any negative surprises, we hope that demand can slowly recover after entering 2024. This is different from the prosperity we have known in the past few years, but it can be confirmed that demand mainly comes from the consumer side and is not so closely related to inventory adjustments. Ke Wensheng stated that European and American consumers are the main drivers of this wave of trade demand rebound, and the European and American markets continue to show "amazing rebound momentum". Given the warehouse being filled with unsold goods, low consumer confidence, and supply chain bottlenecks, Maersk warned of weak shipping demand last year. Ke Wensheng pointed out that even though the economic situation is difficult and severe, emerging markets still show resilience, especially in India, Latin America, and Africa. North America and other major economies faltered due to macroeconomic factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Sino US trade war, but North America is expected to show strong performance next year. Ke Wensheng said that when the situation begins to normalize and the problem is resolved, we will see a rebound in demand. Emerging markets and North America are the areas we believe have the greatest potential for recovery. But the President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, is not so optimistic. In an interview with CNBC on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi on the 10th of this month, she said that the path to boosting global trade and economic growth may not be smooth, and as seen so far, it is even very unsettling. She said: Our world is going against globalization, with global trade expanding at a slower pace than global economic growth for the first time. Global trade growth is 2%, and the economic growth rate is 3%. George Ava pointed out that if we want trade to once again serve as an engine of economic growth, we need to build bridges and create opportunities. Specifically, the first is to reduce the stock, strictly control the increment, and resolve the excess capacity. To reduce the stock is mainly to subsidize the scrapping and renewal of old transport ships and single hull oil tankers in advance, and to support the shipowners association to organize the shipping enterprises to seal part of the transport capacity. Strictly control the increment mainly means to strictly control the newly increased business entities and capacity of passenger transport and dangerous goods transport in the coastal areas and the Yangtze River trunk line. Second, strengthen policy guidance and promote transformation and upgrading. We will encourage enterprises to merge and restructure, standardize shippers' investment in the domestic shipping industry, and improve market access standards. China's convenient flag cruise lines are allowed to be attached at multiple points along the coast, and four cruise routes across the Straits are supported. We will vigorously develop modern shipping services such as shipping finance, insurance and maritime arbitration. Steadily promote the application of LNG in the shipping industry. Third, strengthen market supervision and create a good environment. At the same time of reducing administrative license, we should innovate management methods and strengthen dynamic management. It mainly includes supporting the shipowners association to strengthen the industry self-discipline, establishing the accurate reporting system of container liner rates, and strengthening the investigation of suspected monopoly of the joint operation of container liner companies. Fourth, standardize the charges of enterprises and reduce the burden of enterprises. A number of charging items involving shipping enterprises and operating ships have been regulated. It mainly includes cancelling or exempting 10 specific charging items of 7 types of administrative fees, cancelling or suspending 4 regulatory service fees or regulations related to fees, taking measures to adjust the ship transaction fees, reduce the pilotage fees, and regulate the port fees. Fifth, improve service measures and improve service level. We will promote the unified management of online administrative licensing, filing and certificates. The liability guarantee of pilot NVOCC shall be replaced by bank guarantee. We will strengthen the dynamic monitoring of the shipping market and the analysis of the economic operation of water transportation, and regularly release market information such as transportation capacity. Promote "sunshine pilotage" and gradually cancel the compulsory pilotage of domestic trade ships entering the river.

According to reports, ships carrying various items from consumer goods to food and fuel into and out of the European Union will soon face huge emission costs. The shipping industry will join the EU's emissions trading system in January next year, which means large ships will start paying for carbon emissions. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, some major shipping companies such as MSC Mediterranean Shipping and AP Moller Maersk A/S may have costs as high as hundreds of millions of dollars. Ships carry over 80% of world trade and are also a major source of emissions, emitting approximately 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in 2018. The newly introduced system is the world's first large-scale carbon charging for international shipping, and is also part of the EU's green driving force in addressing climate change. However, despite its huge scale, the charging standards are unlikely to be high enough to force people to immediately switch to using cleaner marine fuels.The EU emissions trading system will increase shipping costs, "said Tore Longva, decarbonization director of DNV Classification Society. But he said that ship supply and demand may have a greater impact on shipping costs. According to DNV data, assuming a carbon market price of 90 euros per ton, the total emission cost for a container ship sailing between Europe and Asia next year is approximately 810000 euros (864500 US dollars). In the next two years, companies will have to bear a larger share of emissions, which means the costs should be higher. Example operation instructions: A ship carrying 5000 standard size containers between the European Union and Asia generates approximately 40000 tons of carbon dioxide per year. But as the journey extends beyond Europe, only half of the emissions need to be covered. This means paying the cost of 20000 tons of carbon dioxide, plus an additional 2500 tons of carbon dioxide emitted by ships during their stay at European ports. In the first year, 40% of eligible emissions require payment, so the ship will face the cost of 9000 tons of carbon dioxide. Assuming a carbon price of 90 euros per ton, or 810000 euros. By 2025, this number will increase to 1.4 million euros, which must cover 70% of emissions; By 2026, this number will increase to 2 million euros, at which point all emissions will be charged (assuming a carbon price of 90 euros). This regulation applies to ships of 5000 gross tons and above, and applies to ships entering and exiting ports in the European Union and the European Economic Area. However, the plan may take some time to truly achieve its emission reduction goals. Longva stated that at a carbon price of around 90 euros, using polluting petroleum fuels and paying for emissions is still cheaper than using more expensive marine biofuels. Despite the eye-catching additional costs, shippers have found that the significant fluctuations in fuel prices in recent years far outweigh the upcoming carbon emissions tax. For example, a carbon price of 90 euros is equivalent to a fee of less than 300 per ton of petroleum fuel burned.

The terminal demand in the container shipping market continues to be sluggish, and the momentum of cargo pulling before the National Day holiday has not yet appeared, and freight rates continue to decline. According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Airlines Exchange on September 15th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) index fell 50.57 points to 948.68 points last week, a weekly decline of 5.06%, and has been below 1000 points for two consecutive weeks. The three major long-distance routes continued to decline, with the US West Line falling 7% to below $2000, and the US East Line plummeting 11%, indicating that the pressure of oversupply has not eased after the small peak season of pulling goods required for the fourth quarter festival. Among them, the freight rate per FEU for the Far East to the Western United States decreased by $149 to 1888 yuan, a weekly decrease of 7.3%; The freight rate per FEU on the Far East to the US East Line decreased by $319 to $2550, a weekly decrease of 11%. The freight rate per TEU for the Far East to Europe line decreased by $56 to $658, a decrease of 7.8%; The freight rate per TEU for the Far East to Mediterranean Line decreased by $60 to $1248, a weekly decrease of 4.59%. On the offshore line, freight rates fluctuate. The freight rate per TEU from the Far East to Kansai, Japan decreased by $4 compared to the previous week; The freight rate per TEU from Far East to Kanto, Japan has increased by $2 compared to the previous week; The freight rate per TEU from the Far East to Southeast Asia has increased by $20 compared to the previous week; The freight rate per TEU from the Far East to South Korea remains unchanged compared to the previous week. Industry insiders point out that it is still half a month before China's National Day holiday, and we have not seen the momentum of buying goods before the holiday. Terminal demand is still not high, and the continuous decline in freight rates reflects the pressure of oversupply. Despite significant reductions in class and cabin sizes, the market freight rates have been declining for two consecutive weeks. As the fourth quarter enters the off-season, the market situation will worsen. It is expected that the US West Line freight rates will fall below $1200/FEU in the fourth quarter, while the US West Line cost prices are between $1300 and $1500. In addition, the freight companies will also face losses from class reductions. On the other hand, due to the deployment of large container ships on the European route, the freight rates on the European route were already low. Some consolidation companies have already charged symbolic shipping fees of only $25 for the return journey, relying on additional fees such as container operation fees to compensate for terminal expenses, with the aim of transporting containers back to Asia. In addition, Singapore's marine fuel has continued to rise from $640 per ton on May 3 this year to the latest $964 per ton, a cumulative increase of 51%. The financial reports of shipping companies in the third and fourth quarters are expected to be impacted. Looking ahead, due to the upcoming US presidential election in November next year, the industry estimates that the US China trade war will not ease before the election, making it difficult for trade to improve. Vietnam, considered the biggest winner under the US China trade war, saw its exports decline for six consecutive months in August, marking its longest decline since 2009, indicating that both US inflation and destocking issues have not yet been resolved. Regarding whether the market situation will improve in the second quarter of next year, industry insiders have expressed the need to look at it quarter by quarter. From the perspective of customer orders and market forecasts, the inventory of importers has now decreased from around 50% to 20%, with limited growth in freight volume. In addition, the transportation company's capacity growth will be significant next year, which will affect the market situation next year.